Europe’s Strategic Balancing Act in a Connected World

As Europe faces a rapidly shifting global landscape, the question of how to maintain independence and stability looms large. Recent discussions highlight that the traditional paradigms of power—military might and regulatory influence—are giving way to “system power,” where control over networks, resources, and technology defines a nation’s ability to influence and protect its interests.

Historically, Europe’s independence rested on hard power, then evolved to soft power anchored in shared rules and institutions. This allowed Europe to become a “regulatory superpower,” shaping global norms and benefitting greatly from open markets and multilateral cooperation. However, increasing economic interdependence has exposed asymmetries: countries able to control strategic resources or technologies can exert outsized influence, rendering old mechanisms of balance less effective. Recent years have seen powers like the United States, China, and Russia leveraging these asymmetries, accelerating a return to state-driven industrial policies and sparking races over supply chains and critical materials. Europe, having previously deprioritized hard and system power, now faces the urgent challenge of adapting to this new era.

To preserve its sovereignty and defend its values, Europe needs to embrace three main shifts. First, greater pooling at the European level is essential, especially in critical sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, where national efforts lack the necessary scale for global competition. Second, the continent must pursue greater coherence, integrating economic, technological, and defense strategies, and breaking down fragmented decision-making and investments that undermine collective strength. Third, Europe should build flexible coalitions—maintaining support for global institutions like the IMF and WTO where possible, forming coalitions of the willing to address shared challenges, and creating robust partnerships with like-minded countries to secure vital assets.

As the world grapples with growing uncertainty and systemic rivalry, Europe’s ability to reinvent its model of power and cooperation will determine its role and security in the international order. Ensuring stability in this interconnected age requires transforming vulnerabilities into shared advantages, compelling Europe to act decisively before crisis forces untimely change.