Adapting to Fragmentation: Lessons for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

At a time when the global economy faces mounting uncertainty and increasing fragmentation, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries are challenged to redefine their growth strategies and fortify their resilience. This was the focus of opening remarks delivered at a major international conference in Dubrovnik, where leaders gathered to address the region’s prospects in an ever-more divided world.

Over the past three decades, CESEE nations have achieved remarkable economic progress, driven by openness, integration, and foreign investment. However, these pillars are now under pressure as protectionism rises and global trade routes realign. Reflecting on history, the experience of Dubrovnik—a city-state that flourished centuries ago by skilfully balancing openness with strategic autonomy—offers a blueprint for today’s policymakers. Dubrovnik’s success was built on versatile diplomacy, prudent economic policy, and a focus on trust and long-term cooperation, rather than confrontation. Modern CESEE countries are encouraged to emulate these principles by accelerating digital transformation, investing in institutional reforms, and enhancing shock resilience through diversified energy sources and robust public infrastructure. Importantly, aligning more closely with Europe’s evolving economic landscape, especially through a more integrated Single Market, can benefit the entire region, regardless of EU membership.

The significance of this discussion lies in its call for CESEE countries to not only adapt national policies but also strengthen regional cooperation, echoing Dubrovnik’s lesson that small actors can exert meaningful influence by remaining agile, forward-thinking, and united amid growing global uncertainties.